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Will the pandemic peak in July or August? Delayed reporting and evolving testing strategy impact the conclusion.

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Disease

Will the pandemic peak in July or August? Delayed reporting and evolving testing strategy impact the conclusion.

There are no models or templates that can forecast the number of Covid-19 cases with accuracy. Many models, including the one used by the health ministry, assume that the doubling rate of cases and deaths don’t change during the forecast period.
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25 Jun 2020 10 Mins Read 9 comments
A medical professional shows test result of Covid-19 test conducted at Gandhi Nagar, New Delhi. Getty Images
A medical professional shows test result of Covid-19 test conducted at Gandhi Nagar, New Delhi.
The Indian Journal of Medical Research (IJMR) said in an editorial last week that all mathematical models predicting the coronavirus outbreak in India have failed as they ‘carried a strong element of bias’. But in my previous article, I had forecasted the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths in the country for the three-week up to June 15,
peak earlier and pray that case fatalities are lower than what the model predicts. ( Disclaimer: The author is the head of operations for an IT and analytics ed-tech company in Bengaluru. The views expressed here are personal and an attempt in predictive time-series analysis. This is not a medical forecast.) ( Graphics by Mohammad Arshad)
The Indian Journal of Medical Research (IJMR) said in an editorial last week that all mathematical models predicting the coronavirus outbreak in India have failed as they ‘carried a strong element of bias’. But in my previous article, I had forecasted the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths in the country for the three-week up to June 15, peak earlier and pray that case fatalities are lower than what the model predicts. ( Disclaimer: The author is the head of operations for an IT and analytics ed-tech company in Bengaluru. The views expressed here are personal and an attempt in predictive time-series analysis. This is not a medical forecast.) ( Graphics by Mohammad Arshad)

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